Kashmiris Spring a Surprise

Maintaining a blog is difficult it seems. Writing regularly requires far greater discipline than I possess but perhaps that is because my mind works in fits and starts. In any event, after the crazy times of the Amarnath Yatra controversy the ongoing elections in Jammu and Kashmir provide another opportunity to write. So, that is what I am going to do.

Basically, this post is about the ongoing elections in Jammu and Kashmir. Against expectations Kashmiris have voted in fairly large numbers and that is going to raise many questions for all the players, most of all for separatists who are becoming increasingly marginalized in the state’s politics. In my view they deserve it.

The ongoing election process is long but early returns have thrown up an interesting scenario—Kashmiris are voting in large numbers ignoring pleas of separatists to boycott the polls. In its wisdom, the Election Commission of India (ECI) decided to hold the state assembly election over 7 phases—yes, 7! But my early misgivings about the length of the exercise, especially given the dire predictions of poll boycotts and low voter turnout in the aftermath of the Amarnath controversy, have given way to a degree of anticipation in the wake of relatively high voter turnout in the first two phases of the election.

Unlike past elections, voters seem to have largely voted of their free will. Local newspapers appear to confirm that voter turnout has been much higher than anticipated. What is more, it seems that voters are turning out without many serious allegations about involuntary voting as was alleged in past elections. Of course, there have been some allegations about fraud and clashes between political groups but the overall message appears to be that people in Kashmir (not to mention Jammu and Ladakh) are voting in respectable numbers. All this is happening in spite of a poll boycott call sponsored by various separatist groups. Anti-election protestors have been curbed to some extent by the government but even this hasn’t had much impact on voter turnout. It also appears that the poll boycott is being heeded (to some extent) in urban areas but largely ignored in rural settings. This is creating quite a stir in Kashmir and perhaps also among observers in New Delhi and Islamabad.

What does the higher than anticipated voter turnout suggest about Kashmir’s political situation? Does this mean people in Kashmir have reconciled to being Indians? Is the Kashmir problem solved? Are separatists losing their hold over Kashmiris? Are people simply voting for good governance, keeping in abeyance their aspirations for a long-term solution to the Kashmir problem? All these are good questions that have no immediate good answers. Overall, it does seem that people want some peace and stability even if they may still want a long-term solution to the Kashmir problem. I wouldn’t say that the pro-India politicians should be jumping up and down with joy and take credit for getting people to vote. Kashmiri politicians have largely disgraced themselves over the years. The Indian government should also not feel to comfortable with this situation even though it might certainly heave a sigh of relief that things are moving in a direction that is certainly not a negative one for India.

Kashmiri separatists are at a crossroads. The one group that really needs to start worrying is the separatist camp. In fact, I have for a long time felt that Kashmiri separatists were a bunch that did not deserve the loyalty of Kashmiri people. Ever since the “movement” started in Kashmir, the separatists have shown themselves to be corrupt opportunists who lacked cohesiveness and a vision and a plan. They simply lucked out that Kashmiris were so resentful of Indian rule. Time and again as the separatists faltered, Indian (and Pakistani) interventions propped them up either by design or by folly. However, the separatists have never really acknowledged that they have a limited following in the state. Of course, they never had any following in much of the Jammu and Ladakh provinces. In Kashmir, they did have support but it was never clear how much since there was no feasible way to find that out. But, my suspicions have proved correct. The separatists really don’t have much support in Kashmir—possibly in the towns and in some rural areas but I would bet that if an internationally supervised election were to be held in just Kashmir (forget Jammu and Ladakh), the Hurriyats led by Mr. Geelani and Mr. Farooq would not get more votes than mainstream politicians. They claim to represent the state. They don’t even represent Kashmir, much less Jammu and Ladakh. I really believe that to be the case. And, the reason for that is that they really haven’t done anything to earn the respect and trust of Kashmiris.

This is my assessment and I am willing to be persuaded that I am wrong. But, if the early trends in voting patterns continue, Kashmiri separatists will have to think hard about their future direction. But wait, the separatists haven’t thought about the future for almost twenty years since the “movement” began. There really isn’t much chance that they are going to begin now. The more things change, the more they remain the same.